Fri 3 – Sun 5 Jul
weekend + Independence Day (observed), 72 hours with minting off. Reference: official close on 2026-07-02.
At the looser 2% threshold: $503 of buys, $16 paid above the reference on them, by 15 wallets.
| Token | Peak (held 15 min) | Hours above 10% | Value of buys >5% above | Paid above the reference | Wallets | Back within 5% after reopen | Community vault (simulated, per $1k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.6% | 0.0 | $9 | $0 | 1 | – | no fill | |
| – | – | $2 | $0 | 1 | – | no fill | |
| +7.8% | 0.0 | $0 | $0 | 0 | – | no fill |
3 more tokens stayed within 5% of the reference
AMD, TSLA, QQQ
Community vault: "no fill" = the price never reached the first sell step (+8%), so nothing sold (gas only); "not replayed" = the token is outside the 45 tokens our replay covers. Peak = the highest premium the token's most active pool held for 15 minutes (single stray trades ignored); hours above 10% on the same pool; tokens with fewer than 10 swaps in the window show "–". Community vault: default ladder, with our own orders in the pool, excluding LP fee income, after the 10% fee on profit (simulated, web/public/data/supply/replay.json).
Observed onchain, Robinhood Chain mainnet. Tokens above 10% = traded at least 10% over the reference for an hour or more in total. Premiums are the highest level the price held for 15 minutes; the single highest trade can be far higher (HIMS touched +317.6% on 29 Aug, see the home page). Wallets = distinct transaction senders, bots and aggregators included.
Excluded: SATS (no official close found for the ticker); 1,569 pools with hooks (their accounting can differ from the swap event); 57 pool-windows whose price was more than 10% from the reference before the window (spam or mispriced pools).
Method
- Mint-off windows: Sat 00:00 to Mon 00:00 UTC (Robinhood tokenization window closed Sat 02:00 to Mon 02:00 CEST), extended over US market holidays.
- Reference: official close of the last US trading session before the window (Yahoo Finance daily chart). The token tracks this price at NAV when minting is on.
- Scanned: every hook-free STOCK/USDG Uniswap v4 pool with fee <= 1% (2074 pools, 187 tickers). 1569 hooked USDG pools were not scanned (hook accounting can differ from the Swap event).
- A pool is excluded for a window if its last pre-window price is more than 10% from the reference (spam or mispriced pool, not tracking the stock).
- A buy = a swap that sent the stock to the trader for USDG. Paid price = USDG in / stock out, including the pool fee (<= 1%).
- USD above reference = USDG paid - stock x reference, summed over buys whose paid price exceeded the reference by more than the threshold. Headline threshold: 5% (above fee + normal spread).
- Unique senders = distinct transaction `from` addresses, counted for buys at least 2% above the reference. Includes bots and aggregators, not only people.
- This is USD paid above the reference price, not a loss: it includes the pool fee (<= 1%), and a buyer whose stock opened higher after the window may have lost nothing.
- Tokens above 10% = the token's most active tracking pool traded at least 10% above the reference for 1 hour or more in total (tokens with fewer than 10 swaps in the window are not counted). Peak = the highest premium the pool held for at least 15 minutes (a single stray print into a near-empty price range is not a price anyone traded at).
- Recovery = hours after the window until that pool traded within 5% of the first post-window close (null = not within 72 h).
- Vault = the community vault's default ladder in the with-supply replay (web/public/data/supply/replay.json), simulated, per $1,000 and $10,000 of tokens deposited.
Source: web/public/data/weekends.json (backtest/src/weekends.ts), generated 2026-09-29.